AIA predicts nonresidential construction spending to drop 11% in 2020

Bright spots to include healthcare and education.

The American Institute of Architects announced an update to the results of its Consensus Construction Forecast survey, uncovering a much more pessimistic outlook than its pre-pandemic findings from December 2019.

Over the past several weeks, nonresidential building activity has shifted from a predicted 1.5% growth over 2020 to an 11% decline with the biggest drop expected in the commercial construction sector.

AIA is providing a detailed update on its forecasters’ projections, along with a breakdown by category for expected overperformers and underperformers. Here are the bright spots: The need for medical facilities to treat and screen Covid-19 patients will push the healthcare sector to outperform in 2020. Two panelists also selected education and public safety projects as the most likely to overperform.

Read the detailed forecast here.